How will the US elections effect Crypto?
The American voting process is unique in that every 2 years, citizens of the United States head to the ballot to cast their vote to select either a new President or local leaders in their respective states. The two events of selecting a President and local politicians are never held at the same time and are always 2 years aprrt. In November 2016, we witnessed the election of President Trump. Two years later, and on the 6th of November, 2018, we will witness the election process that will select new leaders in the US House of Representatives, the Senate, Governor-ships as well as numerous other state and local posts.
How Will This Affect the Price of BTC and other Cryptocurrencies?
Given that this Mid-Term election will be a hot contest between Republicans and Democrats, we can assume that the voter base of each party will be motivated to take time off work and their daily activities, to go and vote. Assuming that a majority of American crypto traders will be casting their vote, we now get a small glimpse as to how their democratic right might affect the daily trade volume from now till the 6th.
What will probably happen, is that American crypto-traders will take time off from their trading activities to take part in the voting process. This means that many will close their long and short positions in prominent exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, just to name a few.
With few trade positions in the exchanges, comes the situation earlier expressed by BitMEX CEO with regards to trade volume. In a recent commentary, he predicted that the bear market might go on for 12 to 18 months due to low trade volume.
I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.
Post Election Effect on BTC and the Crypto Industry
Given that this year’s mid-term elections are poised to be one that many incumbents might lose, the American electorate might get new leaders that are either for or against cryptocurrencies and blockchiain. Therefore, it is safe to assume that there will be a wind of change in Congress, the Senate and local posts such as those of Governorship. All these leaders are instrumental in deciding the regulatory direction the United States takes on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
by John P. Njui
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